Gravity grab gold
And while we keep hammering: Whether measured by our “live” S&P 500 price-earnings ratio of 50.6x or Bob Shiller’s 38.5x, the next P / E ratio means a “reversion” for a massive downward movement for P.Rice, barring emore than a doubling (which obviously never happens en masse). Remember, the “Notable Q2” earnings season for 2021 was just + 35% up on the “Shutdown Q2” of 2020. Otherwise, the percentage growth compared to the previous year is usually in the single-digit range at best. “Say G’Nite, Dick!”
“But until the Fed actually ‘tears the carpet’, as you say, mmb, the money will move on, right?”
That’s unchanged since the depths of COVID a little over a year ago, Squire. And even when the tapering starts, the flow remains positive until shopping stops. Just in time for your next bestseller: “Accounting Credits Killed the Currency” (in bookshops during the holidays).
Irrespective of this, such a devaluation of the currency has not moved gold (net, net) for more than 10 years. That covers a lot of rooting with no results. Yesterday’s (Friday) gold price at 1751 is essentially the same as it was on August 9, 2011. And yet the US money supply (“M2”) has been + 121% and the S&P 500 + 280% since that date. Our gold remains underconfirmed and unpopular, + 0%. Reprise: “Don’t go anywhere” -[Chris Isaak, ’95].
Still, we occasionally recall the statement made by the first single recipient (a JGS) of The Gold Update: “One day we will wake up and gold will cost $ 1,000 / ounce. higher than the day before. ”’It would be nice if that were also in stock for the holidays, because our gold forecast high of 2401 for 2021 should have been reached. But the ambitious goal now looks really bad.
Bad in tandem is the current 13 week stint of the parabolic short trend of the yellow metal shown here in the weekly bars graph from a year ago. With gravity gripping gold, last week’s 1738 low pull had sunk as much as we’ve seen price rise for six weeks. For those of you lucky enough to score at home, these current 13 weeks of the millennium short trend ranks 12th; the short average is 11 weeks.
Therefore, this trend should turn long before the end of the year. But this year with reduced contract trading volume for gold (see last week’s article) and the expected weekly trading range of now 52 points, the nearly 100-point range to reverse the trend to long the following week is a long way off: